Poll: Obama trouncing Clinton in Oregon

Illinois senator leading former first lady 55-35

By Steve Law

The Portland Tribune, May 13, 2008, Updated Oct 30, 2009 (248 Reader comments)

file photos / Portland Tribune

Sens. Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton are locked in a battle for the Oregon Democratic primary election. A new poll shows Obama way ahead in the state.

A bit more than a week away from Oregon’s May 20 primary, Barack Obama has amassed a nearly insurmountable lead in the Democratic presidential race, according to statewide polling conducted by Portland’s Davis, Hibbitts & Midghall Inc. for the Portland Tribune and FOX 12 News.

The U.S. senator from Illinois leads Hillary Clinton by a commanding 55 percent to 35 percent margin among likely Democratic voters, and even leads among women voters who ordinarily tilt toward Clinton, said Tim Hibbitts of Davis, Hibbitts & Midghall. The poll was conducted May 8-10, during and after visits to Oregon by Obama and Clinton.

“Barring a disaster, Barack Obama’s going to win Oregon, and he may win it very big,” said Hibbitts, one of Oregon’s most respected nonpartisan pollsters. “This is the widest lead that I’ve seen of any poll for Obama in Oregon,” he said. “I’d be shocked if Obama didn’t win here.”

Clinton’s slim hopes of gaining the Democratic nomination could rely on sweeping all six remaining primaries, Hibbitts said. Oregon’s May 20 primary could prove crucial in the nominating battle if Clinton wins, as expected, in West Virginia tonight and Kentucky on May 20.

“Obama needs a counterbalancing win, and Oregon looks like it’s here to provide it for him,” Hibbitts said.

That could give Obama an important psychological advantage as he tries to woo remaining uncommitted superdelegates, Hibbitts said. Those are elected officials and party insiders who are awarded automatic votes at the Democrats’ nominating convention this summer.

The poll results and recent events suggest this could be Oregon’s most influential presidential primary in 40 years, when Robert Kennedy and Eugene McCarthy were fighting for the Democratic nomination, Hibbitts said.

Davis, Hibbitts & Midgall Inc. interviewed 400 likely Democratic voters across the state. Its poll has a margin of error of 4.8 percentage points, meaning the numbers could be off by that amount in either direction.

Results showed that Obama’s lead over Clinton, the former first lady and a U.S. senator from New York, was similar in Portland, in the rest of the Willamette Valley, and in the rest of the state.

Clinton enjoys the sympathies of more Democratic voters over 55, the poll showed. But Obama is crushing her among voters 18 to 34 and 35 to 54. In both age groups, Obama leads by more than 2-to-1, according to poll results.

“Right now Obama’s winning across the board,” Hibbitts said. “He’s winning by 11 points among women; He’s leading by 30 points among men.”

Obama’s reputation among Democratic voters aged 18 to 34 is off the charts. Among that group, a whopping 86 percent said they held favorable views of Obama, versus only 1 percent who said they had unfavorable views. In comparison, 68 percent of those voters had favorable views about Clinton, versus 13 percent with unfavorable views.

Not surprisingly, the poll showed Oregon Democrats don’t hold President Bush in high regard.

Among all age groups, 75 percent of Democrats had “very unfavorable” views about Bush and 9 percent had “somewhat unfavorable” views. Only 11 percent had favorable views.

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