Adams has a big lead, but mayors’ race still up in the air

Dozono gaining ground in new poll, could force runoff

By Jim Redden

The Portland Tribune, May 14, 2008, Updated Oct 30, 2009 (46 Reader comments)

file photos / Portland Tribune

City Commissioner Sam Adams faces off in the May 20 primary election against Portland businessman Sho Dozono. A new poll shows that the race could be too close to call, meaning a runoff election might be necessary.

Portland businessman Sho Dozono has closed the gap against Commissioner Sam Adams in his uphill campaign for Portland mayor, according to the second poll conducted in the race for the Portland Tribune and FOX 12 News.

A poll conducted last week shows Adams leading the 13-candidate field with 41 percent of the vote – the same share he had in February.

Dozono, however, has picked up six points over the past three months, moving from 20 percent to 26 percent of the vote.

“Sam is stuck in the mud and I’m gaining ground,” Dozono said after learning that he has gained six points against Adams since February.

But the gain is not enough to guarantee that Dozono will force Adams into a runoff in the general election, according to Tim Hibbitts, a founding partner of Davis, Hibbitts & Midghall Inc., the Portland-based company that conducted both polls.

If no candidate receives more than 50 percent of the vote in the May 20 primary election, the top two vote-getters will face off in the November general election.

“At this point, the race could go to a runoff or Adams could win it by a few percentage points. It all depends on the turnout,” said Hibbitts, who believes Adams could be helped by the contested Democratic Presidential primary race.

According to Hibbitts, Adams is stronger than Dozono among three groups that are energized by the close race between Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton – Democrats, women and young voters.

Adams agrees.

“The fact that I’m doing well among Democrats is a very strong signal. There are a lot more Democrats in Portland than Republicans,” he said.

Although Dozono is encouraged by the new poll results, he is still 15 percent behind Adams, a margin that Hibbitts believes could doom him even if he makes it into the general election.

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