Hillary closes Oregon gap — or does she?

New polls split on whether Clinton cutting into Obama's lead

By Steve Law

The Portland Tribune, May 20, 2008, Updated Oct 30, 2009 (39 Reader comments)

Hillary Clinton supporters found a glimmer of hope Monday with release of a new poll on Oregon’s Democratic presidential primary, but it turned out to be short-lived.

A day after Sen. Barack Obama attracted a record 75,000 people to downtown Portland and a throng of 3,000 to Pendleton, a poll released Monday by Suffolk University Political Research Center showed Clinton was in striking distance of Obama here. The Boston-based group reported that its May 17-18 poll showed Obama leading Clinton by 45 percent to 41 percent.

That followed a May 14-16 poll by American Research Group of Manchester, N.H., showing Obama ahead by a similar 50 percent to 45 percent margin.

But some political experts, including Portland pollster Tim Hibbitts, were skeptical about those findings.

“If the Clinton and Obama campaigns had numbers showing it was a four- or five-point race, they’d be down here through 8 p.m. Tuesday night,” Hibbitts said. Instead, Hillary Clinton left Portland on Friday for Kentucky, and Obama left the state Sunday for Montana.

Hibbitts, of Davis, Hibbitts & Midghall Inc., had conducted a May 8-10 poll for the Portland Tribune and FOX 12 News showing Obama led among likely Oregon Democratic voters by a resounding 55 percent to 35 percent margin, including those leaning toward either candidate. Hibbitts said Obama had a nearly insurmountable lead, and could bank on a pivotal victory in Oregon’s May 20 primary, short of some sort of “disaster” for the Illinois senator.

Different sample of voters

It turns out the Suffolk poll sample included a different mix of people than Hibbitts, one of Oregon’s most respected pollsters. Suffolk included a smaller mix of younger voters and a larger share of older voters in its poll. Younger voters are solidly in Obama’s camp in Oregon, while Clinton leads among older voters.

Hibbitts said Suffolk’s age mix would be more typical of a low-turnout election. But as the 75,000 people flocking to see Obama at Tom McCall Waterfront Park showed, this primary has energized Oregon Democrats. Turnout in Oregon’s Democratic primary could approach 70 percent, Hibbitts said. As a result, younger voters will make up a larger share of the electorate than usual.

As of Sunday, the state Elections Division reported that 727,527 people, or 36 percent of all Oregon registered voters, had cast ballots.

Later Monday afternoon, two other polls were released that buttressed Hibbitts’ poll findings.

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