Report: Immigration no-match policy could hurt state economy

Homeland Security rules on Social Security numbers worries employers

By Jennifer Anderson

The Portland Tribune, Jul 9, 2008, Updated Oct 30, 2009 (32 Reader comments)

Pending federal legislation that would use Social Security records for immigration enforcement would have damaging effects to Oregon’s economy, a new study commissioned by the Coalition for a Working Oregon has found.

The study, released Wednesday, sought to evaluate the impact of the so-called no-match rule, which would require employers to penalize or fire workers whose numbers don't match up with the Social Security Administration database. Employers who violate the rule would face fines or criminal prosecution.

The study was commissioned by William Jaeger, an economist and professor in the Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics at Oregon State University.

If the rule is implemented, “the potential ramifications for Oregon’s economy are significant and could cause a loss of 173,500 jobs in the short-term, or 7.7 percent of Oregon’s work force along with a reduction in statewide annual production of $17.7 billion,” Jaeger said.

The no-match rule is in limbo after a federal judge last fall barred the government from mailing no-match letters to 140,000 employers nationwide. The issue is set for a hearing at the U.S. 9th Circuit Court of Appeals in San Francisco on Aug. 1. If the court determines the rule is is legally sound, the letters could be sent out and be enforced by the Department of Homeland Security.

If implemented, the no-match rule would eliminate about 100,000 workers – 4.3 percent of the Oregon work force – from the state economy, the study found. It would hit the state’s hospitality, agriculture and construction industries the hardest.

“Our timeframe is four weeks long,” said Tom McNabb, a salesman for Yule Tree Farms, a Christmas tree farm in Canby. “We have one chance each year to make it happen. If the rules come along in the middle of the year and we don’t have the opportunity to adjust, we’re done. We planted these trees eight years ago. ... Culturing, nurturing Christmas trees can’t be done with equipment.”

The workers’ coalition commissioned the study after its formation last summer, calling itself the first consolidated effort by Oregon employers to promote comprehensive immigration reform on a federal level.

“We are in a labor drought in a high labor-cost state,” said Bill Perry, director of government relations for the Oregon Restaurant Association. “You have to have a replacement work force; you can’t just push them all out.”

Perry said he’d guess that 20 percent to 25 percent of the state’s restaurant workers are immigrants, but all of them are required to have proper tax forms on file before they are hired. “Probably 10 to 12 percent are illegal, I would guess, but they’ve given us documents that are not legal.”

Another argument against the mandatory social security validation is that the database is full of errors that could lead to job denials for American citizens and legal workers, some employers say.

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