Voters souring on GOP

Presidential race • Palin gets little traction in Oregon

By Steve Law

The Portland Tribune, Sep 17, 2008, Updated Oct 30, 2009 (82 Reader comments)

Sen. Barack Obama of Illinois has a 10-point lead over Sen. John McCain of Arizona in a recent Portland Tribune/Fox 12 poll.

GOP vice presidential nominee Sarah Palin isn’t giving John McCain much oomph among Oregon voters, enabling Barack Obama to maintain his strong lead in the state presidential race, according to a new Portland Tribune/Fox 12 poll.

Obama leads McCain 50-40 among registered voters, according to a Sept. 11 through Sept. 14 poll by Davis, Hibbitts & Midghall Inc. Obama retains equally strong support among male and female voters.

“I do not believe that Oregon is going to be a battleground state this year,” concluded independent Portland pollster Tim Hibbitts. The Tribune/Fox 12 poll jibes with two recent surveys by GOP pollsters Bob Moore and Tim Nashif of the Hoffman Group, both conducted after the Republican convention. Those reported Obama leads of 6 and 7 percentage points, respectively.

“This is probably as good as it’s going to get for the Republicans, this general range, unless Obama’s campaign implodes,” Hibbitts said. ”Obama’s been ahead all summer, and has captivated Oregonians to a degree.”

How the poll was done

Pollsters for Portland public opinion firm Davis, Hibbitts & Midghall Inc. interviewed 500 registered voters sprinkled around the state, on behalf of the Portland Tribune and Fox 12. Calls were made Sept. 11 through Sept. 14, after the “bounces” that Democrat Barack Obama and Republican John McCain received following their party conventions in Denver and Minneapolis-St. Paul. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percent, meaning results could be off by that amount, in either direction. Davis, Hibbitts & Midghall is nonpartisan and does not work for political candidates.

Albert Beard, a 71-year-old retiree from Southwest Portland who was one of the poll respondents, said Obama will help end gridlock in Washington about crucial problems like Social Security, global warming and the budget deficit.

“I just think that somebody needs to come in and make government work,” said Beard, a registered Democrat.

The Tribune/Fox 12 poll suggests that Palin’s nomination helped McCain consolidate support among wavering Republicans, but didn’t provide the boost he needed among unaffiliated voters.

“I don’t believe she’s helping John McCain in Oregon with swing voters,” Hibbitts said. “It’s going to be decided by swing voters in the middle.”

The Palin nomination solidified Lynn Johnson’s support for McCain, since she tends to support only anti-abortion candidates. “I think Obama is a chameleon,” said the 39-year-old registered nurse from Northeast Portland, a registered Republican and a poll respondent. “He changes and says what he thinks people want him to say.”

Palin “puts on a good front, but I don’t know that I trust her too much,” said Donna Dean, a 72-year-old retiree from Northeast Portland and registered Democrat.

“I hate the thought that McCain, who is my age, would die while in office, with as little experience as she’s got.” Dean said.

Dean told pollsters she’s going for Obama. “I think that McCain has sided with Bush far too many times,” she said. “I also didn’t like his position on the war.”

Palin, the Alaska governor, is a highly polarizing figure in Oregon, pollsters found. Among Republicans, 82 percent view her favorably and only 3 percent view her unfavorably. But 71 percent of Democrats view her unfavorably and only 8 percent view her favorably.

Among independent voters, 35 percent view Palin favorably and 38 percent unfavorably.

We like them, we don‘t like them

In the voter-rich Portland area, 50 percent of voters view Palin unfavorably and only 28 percent view her favorably. Palin proved no more popular among women than men statewide.

Hibbitts concluded that Palin helped McCain close some of the gap with Obama in Oregon, but that she isn’t resonating with the state’s voters as much as she is in other states.

Pollsters found that only 28 percent of Oregon voters hold favorable views of President Bush, while 62 percent said they have unfavorable views.

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