Poll says Smith’s re-election odds are ‘slim’

Democratic challenger Merkley jumps ahead of Republican incumbent in latest survey of voters

By Steve Law

The Portland Tribune, Oct 27, 2008, Updated Oct 30, 2009 (43 Reader comments)

Democrat Jeff Merkley is poised to topple incumbent Republican Gordon Smith in Oregon’s contentious U.S. Senate race, according to Portland pollster Tim Hibbitts.

Merkley, the Oregon House of Representatives speaker from Portland, leads Smith 45 percent to 40 percent, according to an Oct. 23-25 poll for the Portland Tribune and Fox 12. Constitution Party candidate Dave Brownlow has the support of 3 percent of Oregon voters.

“As of now, Jeff Merkley’s the favorite,” said Hibbitts, one of Oregon’s most respected nonpartisan pollsters.

Davis, Hibbitts & Midghall Inc. interviewed 500 registered voters around the state. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percent.

Hibbitts pointed out there have been eight other polls of the race in the last month, and seven concluded Merkley has a comparable lead.

“I think (Smith’s) chances of winning are slim,” Hibbitts said.

He stressed that the race is not over, but Merkley has the momentum, and many Oregonians have already voted. “There isn’t a thing (Smith) can do differently with a week to go,” Hibbitts said. “I think the cake is baked.”

The race is closely watched nationally, as Democrats are striving to stretch their 51 to 49 majority in the U.S. Senate to a filibuster-proof 60 seats.

Bush is Smith’s obstacle

In a Portland Tribune/Fox 12 poll six weeks ago, Smith was ahead of Merkley by 42 to 39 percent. That poll also had a margin of error of 4.4 percent.

In one ominous sign for Smith, Merkley has pulled even with him outside Multnomah, Washington and Clackamas counties and the Willamette Valley south of Portland. Those areas include eastern, central and southern Oregon as well as the coast.

Smith hails from Pendleton, and Republicans need commanding majorities in small-town Oregon to counter Democrats’ sizable – and growing – advantage in Portland and the surrounding suburbs.

President George W. Bush – not Merkley – is Smith’s biggest obstacle, Hibbitts said.

Only 20 percent of all Oregonians hold favorable views about the sitting president, according to the Tribune/Fox 12 poll, down from 28 percent six weeks earlier.

“The lower he goes, the lower anybody who’s tied to him goes down,” Hibbitts said. “Why do you think Smith was running ads linking himself to Barack Obama and even John Kerry?”

Bush’s unpopularity, combined with the growing economic crisis, makes it a terrible time for Republican candidates, Hibbitts said.

Only 9 percent of Oregon voters said the country is heading in the right direction, according to the poll, versus 83 percent who said it’s going in the wrong direction. Those are the most dismal numbers Hibbitts said he has seen in three decades as an Oregon pollster.

Voters are not exactly thrilled with Merkley, who was little-known statewide before the race, Hibbitts said. The record-busting television ad war on behalf of both candidates is making it hard for Merkley to build his popularity, while dragging down Smith’s once-high reputation among voters.

But that may not matter.

“This is not fundamentally about Jeff Merkley’s popularity,” Hibbitts said.

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