Poll: Brown, Westlund lead in secretary of state, treasurer races

Undecided voters begin to fall into place, mostly for Democrats

By Steve Law

The Portland Tribune, Oct 28, 2008, Updated Oct 30, 2009 (5 Reader comments)

Democratic state Sens. Kate Brown and Ben Westlund are in solid position to become Oregon’s next secretary of state and state treasurer, according to a new poll for the Portland Tribune and Fox 12.

Brown, a Portland Democrat, leads Springfield Republican Rick Dancer, a former television journalist, 38 percent to 32 percent in the secretary of state’s race, according to a new poll by Portland polling firm Davis, Hibbitts & Midghall Inc. Portland software engineer Seth Woolley, running on the Pacific Green Party ticket, had 4 percent in the poll, while 25 percent were undecided.

Davis, Hibbitts & Midghall Inc. polled 500 registered voters around the state from Oct. 23 through Oct. 25. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percent.

Six weeks earlier, a Tribune/Fox 12 poll by the same firm found Brown led Dancer 33 percent to 25 percent, with 38 percent undecided.

Westlund, a Bend-area Democrat, leads Lake Oswego Republican Allen Alley by 39 percent to 28 percent in the treasurer’s race, the new poll showed. Constitution Party candidate Michael Marsh, a McDonald’s maintenance worker from Salem, is favored by 3 percent of voters, while 29 percent remain undecided, according to the poll.

A Tribune/News 12 poll by the same firm six weeks ago found Westlund led Alley 31 percent to 20 percent, with 45 percent undecided.

There still are a high number of undecided voters, giving Dancer and Alley a shot at winning, said Tim Hibbitts, who conducted the poll for Davis, Hibbitts & Midghall. But neither has narrowed the gap significantly since the last survey six weeks ago, and many Oregonians have already cast their ballots.

“Nobody’s really gained. What’s happened is the undecideds have dropped,” Hibbitts said.

If that pattern continues, “it benefits the Democrats,” he said. “It would be an upset for either Republican to win.”

New voters could swamp GOP

Secretary of State Bill Bradbury and Oregon Treasurer Randall Edwards are stepping down after serving two terms. Neither is allowed to run again because of term limits. Bradbury is pondering a run for governor in 2010, while Edwards is exploring his career options.

Kate Brown, who has served in the Legislature since 1991, was Senate majority leader until she relinquished that position last year to run for secretary of state. A lawyer by training, she has worked in family law.

This is Dancer’s first run for elective office after a long television news career in Eugene.

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