Emission goals prove elusive

As population grows, caps on greenhouse gases look hard to reach

By Jim Redden

The Portland Tribune, Sep 17, 2009, Updated Oct 30, 2009 (4 Reader comments)

JAIME VALDEZ / TRIBUNE FILE PHOTO

The nation’s first highway solar project at the Interstate 5 and Interstate 205 interchange in Tualatin has operated since 2008, but some say new energy sources won’t be enough to meet future demand.

Population growth poses the greatest obstacle to reducing greenhouse gas emissions in the state and region, according to two recent plans to meet future electricity demand.

The state of Oregon and the city of Portland have set ambitious goals to reduce emissions believed to cause global warming. The city is about to adopt even tougher goals in cooperation with Multnomah County as part of a new Climate Action Plan.

But Portland General Electric recently said it needs to increase emissions from its power plants to meet customer demand for additional energy during the next 20 years. The congressionally created Northwest Power and Conservation Council recently declined to say that power plant emissions in the region could be cut during that same time.

Those predictions frustrate environmentalists, who complain that PGE and the council are not trying hard enough to fight global warming. Yet the PGE and council projections are consistent with what governments and utilities have experienced as they’ve tried to reduce greenhouse gases.

Portland is about to fall short of its goal of reducing emissions 10 percent below 1990 levels by 2010. Although emissions have fallen approximately 17 percent per capita since 2001, because of population increases, the net reduction is likely to be 1 to 3 percent below 1990 levels – and some of that will be the result of the recession that curtailed driving, construction and employment.

Even some countries at the forefront of fighting global warming cannot meet their greenhouse gas emission reduction goals. The Kyoto Protocol was adopted at a U.N. conference in Kyoto, Japan, in 1997. Japan ratified it a short time later, promising to cut its emissions by 6 percent below 1990 levels. But according to the Sept. 8 issue of the New York Times, Japan’s emissions hit a record high in 2008 – a full 16 percent above its reduction goals.

According to PGE officials, the situation is largely one of facing reality.

“We have to meet our customers’ demand with the technology we know is available,” says PGE spokesman Steve Corson.

Demand outpaces new sources

On Sept. 4, PGE released a draft plan for meeting its customers’ energy demand during the next 20 years. Known as the Draft Integrated Resource Plan, it is required by state law and must be approved by the Oregon Public Utility Commission, which regulates all private utility companies in the state.

In the draft, PGE predicted that population and job growth within its service district will increase electricity demand by an average of 2.3 percent a year – or 20 percent by 2020. PGE said some of the increases can be met by conservation, energy efficiency and new renewable energy resources, including wind and solar power.

But the draft also said that, to meet demand on peak days, PGE must increase its share of the power produced by the coal-burning plant in Boardman and build two new natural gas-powered plants.

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