Projected carbon emissions skyrocket

Region’s transportation hopes conflict with greenhouse goals

By Steve Law

The Portland Tribune, Nov 12, 2009 (7 Reader comments)

The Portland area’s $20 billion transportation wish list and its pledge to reduce greenhouse gases are on a collision course.

A new Metro study shows that population growth coupled with a soon-to-be-approved Regional Transportation Plan will result in so much metro-area traffic that greenhouse gas emissions from vehicles will jump 49 percent.

The finding comes just as Portland and Multnomah County embark on a massive, lifestyle-changing Climate Action Plan to slash overall greenhouse gas emissions 80 percent by 2050.

Environmentalists say the new Metro analysis confirms the folly of spending $4 billion on a new, wider Columbia River bridge – the largest project in the Regional Transportation Plan – as well as projects to widen some suburban roads to seven lanes.

“We need solutions that don’t lead to more driving,” says Mara Gross, policy director of Coalition for a Livable Future, which represents about 90 organizations.

Metro planners say the 49 percent figure is overstated, because their analysis uses planned projects, plus an expected 58 percent population growth, to estimate future vehicle trips in 2035. The study didn’t try to predict future behavior, policy and land-use changes – or consider inevitabilities such as the coming wave of fuel-efficient and electric cars.

But there’s no dispute about the trend the study shows.

“Does it matter whether it’s 20 percent or 49 percent when we’re trying to get to minus 80 percent?” wonders Rex Burkholder, Metro councilor. “What it shows us is we’re going in the wrong direction.”

Reduced driving sought

An estimated 38 percent of Multnomah County’s greenhouse gas emissions come from all forms of transportation, more than any other sector, according to the Portland Bureau of Planning and Sustainability. So the city/county Climate Action Plan calls for dramatically reducing daily miles driven from 18.5 miles per person to 13.4 miles by the year 2030. That will require more bicycling, more walking, more carpooling and telecommuting, better transit, and more nearby groceries and jobs so people don’t have to travel as far.

Since 1990, carbon emissions from transportation have risen a modest 2.5 percent within Multnomah County, despite rapid population growth. TriMet ridership and bicycle commuting have mushroomed during that period.

As Portland city commissioners prepared to vote on the Climate Action Plan on Oct. 28, word of Metro’s new greenhouse gas study shocked many in attendance.

“Our transportation wish list takes us in the opposite direction,” testified Chris Smith, a transportation activist, blogger and member of the Multnomah County Planning Commission.

Burkholder says criticisms from the Coalition for a Livable Future are unfair, based on singling out a handful of projects among 1,000 in line for funding in the $20 billion plan. That list also includes money for Portland’s eastside trolley line, Burkholder notes, as well as numerous transit, pedestrian and bicycle projects that offer people a range of transportation choices.

Roads, bridges and highways stand to get 57 percent of the nearly $20 billion in the Regional Transportation Plan, but transit, pedestrian and bicycle projects are in line to receive 37 percent of the money.

Metro, he adds, appears to be the first in the nation doing this kind of greenhouse gas analysis of transportation projects.

Old style of business?

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