Is Oregon the new Idaho?

Economists say state’s falling income levels and spending hurt Oregon’s future

By Steve Law

The Portland Tribune, Jun 16, 2010 (18 Reader comments)

Oregonians’ sagging incomes will make it increasingly hard to provide the quality of schools, universities and other public services we’re accustomed to, a panel of economists told local business leaders Wednesday, at the Portland Business Alliance’s monthly breakfast forum.

There’s been a decade-long fall in Oregon per-capita income relative to the nation, said John Tapogna, president of ECONorthwest – from about 97 percent of the national average a decade ago to only about 90 percent.

“For the first time in four decades, we now look more like Idaho than we look like Washington State,” Tapogna said.

Maybe it’s time to look at what Idaho pays for its teachers and other public services, he said, so Oregon can learn how to make do with reduce public spending.

Tapogna, state economist Tom Potiowsky and University of Oregon economics professor Tim Duy gave bleak assessments of both local and state economy to business leaders gathered at downtown’s Governor Hotel.

Potiowsky said the recovery has technically begun, but the “feel good” part won’t come until next year.

“Unfortunately, the recovery is going to be very, very mild,” he said.

Tapogna cited two worrisome statistics that signal future pressure on government services. The number of baby boomers turning 65 this decade will grow 50 percent, he said, increasing demand for health care and taking the most educated sector out of the work force. And 25 percent of preschoolers in Oregon are Hispanic – a group not particularly well served in our schools – Tapogna said.

Rural Oregon cities and counties will face added pressure when the federal government halts payments to timber counties, Tapogna said.

Duy and Tapogna said the Portland area is resting too much on its laurels, smug that its quality of life and attractiveness to young college graduates will guarantee a bright economic future.

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