Kerry edges out Bush in state poll

Democrat leads by slimmer margin with Nader in the mix

By Don Hamilton

The Portland Tribune, May 14, 2004, Updated Oct 30, 2009

Sen. John Kerry holds a narrow lead over President Bush in Oregon even with independent presidential candidate Ralph Nader on the ballot, according to a new Portland Tribune/KOIN (6) poll.

The survey, conducted May 6-8 and May 10, shows the Massachusetts Democrat with the backing of 50 percent of respondents, President Bush with 46 percent and 4 percent undecided. That’s a slight increase for Kerry over a Portland Tribune/KOIN poll taken April 25-29, which showed Kerry leading Bush 48 percent to 46 percent.

Kerry still leads, but by a narrower margin, when the poll adds Nader to the mix. The results show Kerry with 47 percent, Bush with 45 percent, Nader with 3 percent and 5 percent undecided.

“So much for Nader’s claim he’ll be drawing voters from George Bush,” said Mark Wiener, Portland political strategist.

The poll comes against the backdrop of embarrassing revelations for the Bush administration about the mistreatment of Iraqi prisoners. The most recent Associated Press-Ipsos poll shows Bush leading Kerry nationally 46 percent to 43 percent with 7 percent for Nader.

Kerry will appear Monday in a rally at Pioneer Courthouse Square with former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean. Gates open at 4:30 p.m. with the rally starting at 6 p.m. Kerry plans to return to Portland May 25 to raise money and for other campaign events.

Research 2000 of Rockville, Md., conducted the PortlandTribune/KOIN poll by calling 603 likely Oregon voters. The margin of error is plus or minus 4 percentage points. That means the poll has a 95 percent probability that a real sample of the state would fall within 4 percentage points of the poll results.

Here are some more poll highlights:

• When the candidates were pitted against one another, Kerry picked up support over Bush among unaffiliated Oregon voters, who supported him 51 percent to 39 percent in the April poll but now back him 54 percent to 39 percent.

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