Kerry leads in Oregon

Survey shows state may be less close than candidates thought

By Don Hamilton

The Portland Tribune, Sep 21, 2004, Updated Oct 30, 2009

Sen. John Kerry leads President Bush 51 percent to 44 percent in Oregon, according to a new poll conducted for the Portland Tribune and KOIN (6).

The survey, taken Sept. 13-16, also showed Democratic Sen. Ron Wyden with a comfortable lead over Republican challenger Al King. Wyden, seeking a second six-year term, led King in the poll 58 percent to 31 percent, with 11 percent of the respondents undecided.

The survey also showed three incumbent Democratic state officials Ñ Secretary of State Bill Bradbury, Attorney General Hardy Myers and Treasurer Randall Edwards Ñ all leading for re-election.

Oregon, with its modest seven electoral votes, has attracted more attention from the presidential candidates than usual this year because Bush lost here in 2000 by only 6,765 votes. The competition reached a peak Aug. 13 when both Kerry and Bush were in town at the same time.

Most recent polls have shown Kerry leading Bush in Oregon. One, conducted by Riley Research from Aug. 26 to Sept. 1, showed the candidates in a dead heat. But a Sept. 2 survey by Zogby International showed Kerry leading 53 percent to 43 percent.

“Given the tough three weeks Kerry’s had nationally with the Swift boat controversy and the reorganization of his top staff, this has got to be good news for the Kerry folks here in the state,” said Russell Dondero, a professor of political science at Pacific University in Forest Grove. “The most important thing to me from the Kerry perspective is his lead in the metro area,” where the poll showed Kerry comfortably ahead.

The Tribune-KOIN poll, conducted by Research 2000 of Rockville, Md., questioned 600 likely Oregon voters by phone. The margin of error is plus or minus 4 percentage points. The poll did not include Ralph Nader, whose name was ordered onto the ballot Sept. 9 by a Marion County judge. The state is appealing that order.

Here are some highlights of the presidential poll:

• Kerry led Bush statewide 51 percent to 44 percent, with 5 percent undecided.

• Respondents held more favorable opinions of Kerry than of Bush. The Massachusetts Democrat was viewed favorably by 48 percent and unfavorably by 39 percent, while Bush was seen favorably by 44 percent and unfavorably by 47 percent.

• Kerry led in the three-county Portland metro area, 57 percent to 36 percent, and in Lane County, 54 percent to 38 percent. Bush led in Jackson County, 55 percent to 37 percent.

• Bush led narrowly among men, 49 percent to 48 percent, while Kerry held a more substantial lead among women, 54 percent to 39 percent. Dondero said this indicates the Swift boat controversy may matter more to men than to women.

• Kerry led among all age groups in margins ranging from 6 to 16 percentage points except for the 30-to-44 age group, where Bush led 53 percent to 45 percent.

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