Debates change few Oregon minds

New poll shows state continues to lean toward Kerry

By Don Hamilton

The Portland Tribune, Oct 19, 2004, Updated Oct 30, 2009

Sen. John Kerry continues to hold a slight lead over President Bush among Oregon voters in the latest poll by the Tribune and KOIN (6).

The poll showed Kerry, D-Mass., leading the president in Oregon50 percent to 44 percent, with 3 percent undecided and 3 percent divided among four other minor-party candidates on the ballot. The results nearly mirror two Tribune-KOIN polls commissioned by the news organizations in September that showed Kerry ahead by 7 percentage points.

“I don’t think this is a state Bush wins,” said Del Ali, whose company, Research 2000 of Rockville, Md., conducted the poll. “Bush is stuck in the low to mid-40s, which isn’t going to get it done. Oregon is Kerry’s to lose.”

The poll showed Oregonians split in their opinions of Bush, with 47 percent seeing him unfavorably and 45 percent favorably. Kerry, meanwhile, was seen favorably by 50 percent of the respondents and unfavorably by 41 percent.

Kerry’s slight edge hasn’t deterred the Bush campaign, which continues to work hard in Oregon, a state the president lost in 2000 by only 6,765 votes.

Bush appeared in Jackson County on Thursday afternoon, the day after the third debate with Kerry, and his campaign continues to buy TV advertising, as has Kerry’s. Thursday’s visit was Bush’s fifth trip to the state as president and second this year, while Kerry has been here three times this year.

The poll, conducted Oct. 11 through Oct. 14, questioned 600 likely voters by phone. The margin of error is plus or minus 4 percentage points.

Here are some highlights:

• Measure 35, which would cap noneconomic damages awarded in lawsuits, appears unpopular. In the poll, 48 percent of respondents said they plan to vote against the measure, while 40 percent favor it. Another 12 percent are undecided.

• Voters seem solidly in favor of Measure 36, which would ban same-sex marriage. In the poll, 56 percent of respondents favored the constitutional amendment and 40 percent opposed it.

• Measure 37, which requires governments to pay landowners when land-use laws restrict their ability to develop their property, had the support of 47 percent of the respondents with 35 percent opposed.

• Measure 38, the proposal to abolish SAIF Corp., the state workers’ compensation insurance agency, appears headed to defeat. The poll showed 49 percent opposed and 36 percent in support.

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