Pollster: Kerry’s a lock in Oregon

Bush trails by 6 points and rates unfavorably with respondents

By Don Hamilton

The Portland Tribune, Oct 26, 2004, Updated Oct 30, 2009

Sen. John Kerry holds a slight but steady lead over President Bush among Oregon voters, according to the latest statewide poll by the Tribune and KOIN (6).

The survey, conducted Oct. 18 to Oct. 21, showed Kerry, D-Mass., with support from 49 percent of those polled. Bush was backed by 43 percent, with another 3 percent going to other candidates and 5 percent undecided.

Kerry held similar leads in three previous polls taken this fall by the two news organizations. In the first two, both taken in September, Kerry was ahead by 7 percentage points. In the poll taken Oct. 11 through Oct. 14, Kerry led by 6 percentage points, the same margin as the most recent survey.

The poll, conducted by Research 2000 of Rockville Md., queried the opinions of 600 likely Oregon voters by phone, and had a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.

The stability of Kerry’s numbers through the fall shows that the race in Oregon remains close, but that the Democrat has so far stopped Bush from taking a lead in a state he nearly won in 2000.

“Oregon is Kerry’s,” said Del Ali, whose company conducted the poll. “The numbers have been pretty consistent. Granted, it’s within the margin of error so you could say it’s statistically close. But I doubt it, based on the favorable and unfavorable ratings. Bush has never been above 45 percent in any of our polls.”

Here are some poll highlights:

• Measure 35, which would cap noneconomic damages awarded in lawsuits, appears to be passing. In the poll, 49 percent of respondents said they plan to vote for the measure while 42 percent were opposed. Another 9 percent said they were undecided.

• Voters seem solidly in favor of Measure 36, which would ban same-sex marriage. In the poll, 57 percent of respondents favored the state constitutional amendment, while 40 percent were opposed and 3 percent were undecided.

• Measure 37, which would require government to pay landowners when land-use laws restrict their ability to develop, had the support of 48 percent of the respondents with 38 percent opposed and 14 percent undecided.

• Measure 38, the proposal to abolish SAIF Corp., which provides workers’ compensation insurance to Oregon businesses, appears headed to defeat. The poll showed 50 percent opposed, 37 percent in support and 13 percent unsure.

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