Schools prepare for a big squeeze

State shortfall may mean larger classes and fewer teachers

By Todd Murphy

The Portland Tribune, Jan 11, 2002, Updated Oct 30, 2009

Larger class sizes. Fewer teachers.

And local school districts that won’t be giving Portland’s children the education they deserve.

That’s the warning from Portland school officials and education advocates as they consider possible cuts of hundreds of millions of dollars next year for elementary and secondary schools.

State legislators are considering such cuts because of a predicted $830 million shortfall in the state’s budget for next year Ñ a shortfall legislators will grapple with in a special session, possibly next month.

Some warnings from local education officials undoubtedly represent a chunk of public lobbying; school officials know their warnings might persuade skittish legislators to make any education cuts smaller rather than bigger.

Still, there’s little doubt that the possible cuts to the state K-12 education budget Ñ anywhere from $100 million to the $300 million in a no-new-taxes plan Gov. John Kitzhaber released earlier this week Ñ will significantly affect schools. And probably mean teacher layoffs.

“Personnel costs Ñ in our district, it’s 83 percent,” said Barbara Rommel, superintendent of the 8,300-student David Douglas school district in east Portland. “You just can’t make that level of cut by cutting paper and maintenance and those kinds of things. You have to cut people.”

Based on percentage of budgets potentially cut, smaller Portland districts like David Douglas and Parkrose will feel the pinch as much as any district.

But based on total numbers Ñ of dollars and teaching positions potentially cut Ñ Portland Public Schools could lead the state.

Portland’s 54,000-student district has about 10 percent of the state’s students and therefore gets about 10 percent of the state’s school money. So a $200 million cut in state education funds means a $20 million cut to the Portland district.

And any state cut will come on top of a shortfall of $8.5 million to $19 million that Portland district officials already have projected for next year’s budget.

So the total budget cut for the Portland district could range from $19 million to $49 million Ñ or 5 percent to 13 percent of an expected $382 million general fund budget.

“We have a $50-million problem,” interim Superintendent Jim Scherzinger said. “We believe that that’s mission-threatening at that level.”

Scherzinger will highlight a range of possible cuts in a presentation to the Portland school board on Monday night. Suggested cuts likely to be part of the presentation include:

Teacher cuts

Almost 85 percent of the Portland district’s budget goes to salaries and benefits. So any significant cut quickly will affect employees, especially teachers.

About 3,600 of the district’s 6,000 employees are teachers. The 2,400 others include teachers’ assistants, school staff and central office administrators.

The average class size throughout Portland schools is about 25 students per teacher. Raising the student-to-teacher ratio by one student per teacher would cut about 56 teaching positions and save the district about $2.7 million per year. Raising the ratio by two students would cut about 120 teaching positions and save about $5.4 million, and by three students would cut about 170 teachers and save about $8 million.

Those cuts would not necessarily mean layoffs: 200 to 300 teachers retire or resign in an average year. But it would bring even larger class sizes Ñ a year after the district raised the student-to-teacher ratio by about one student per teacher and two years after Portland district voters approved a tax increase to decrease class sizes.

A shorter school year

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