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JASON SAYS: Oregon-Cal almost too close to call – Ducks by two points

By Jason Vondersmith

The Portland Tribune, Oct 30, 2008, Updated Oct 30, 2009 (6 Reader comments)

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I really look forward to games such as Oregon vs. California, 12:30 p.m. Saturday (ABC). Too many times a team has a massive edge over another team, and it's fairly easy to predict the winner.

On Saturday, Oregon-Cal could go either way.

I see Cal as being able to exploit the Ducks with running back Jahvid Best, complemented with some passing, both helped by the Bears' standout offensive line. The Ducks haven't really slowed down Jeff Tedford's offense much since the ex-Duck offensive coordinator went south, so one would assume the Bears will find ways to move the ball.

But, the Ducks have the Pac-10's best running game, and I see Oregon being able to run the ball straight up the middle of the field. As coach Mike Bellotti explains, power-running teams have success against 3-4 defenses because they find the "bubble" in the defense. It'll also allow the Ducks to control the clock, which they rarely do because of the nature of the no-huddle, fast-paced, quick-scoring spread offense. Power running back LeGarrette Blount will have a big game with about 25 carries, as the Bears might be better equipped to slow anything on the outside, and UO's offense has enough trickery to make holes up the middle.

It'll come down to defensive stops, and there I see Oregon having the edge because of UO's combination of success rushing the passer and stopping the run and its improvement playing the pass.

Of course, things could change on turnovers, and Bellotti expects (as he almost always does) that who wins the turnover/takeaway battle wins the game. Whenever I think turnovers, I think possible Jeremiah Masoli interceptions, but the kid has really been improving mentally and physically at the quarterback position.

THE PICK: Oregon 35, Cal 33

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Reader comments

Re: JASON SAYS: Oregon-Cal almost too close to call – Ducks by two points

After reading the articles you have written about the Ducks this year it appears you are in love with the Ducks. You know, the Ducks have comparable talent to USC, and you pick them to win most games, etc...

The Ducks still haven,t beaten anybody and last week's game is fools gold once again. A win at Cal is a tall order for a Ducks team that still needs to prove they can stop a decent passing game and throw the ball with a rookie QB. ASU's week offensive line can not stop the rush, which made it easy for the D-Boyz. That won't be the case this game. Cal is favored for a reason and will probably prevail by exploiting said UO deficiencies.

"jc963"

(email verified)

Thu, Oct 30, 2008 at 07:30 AM

Re: JASON SAYS: Oregon-Cal almost too close to call – Ducks by two points

jc963,

Why even read this article if you are Beaver fan? Go read a Beaver's article.

This game will be close, but Cal's "standout offensive line" is all injured which will help the Ducks D disrupt Riley or Longshore.

"echo31"

(email verified)

Thu, Oct 30, 2008 at 07:39 AM

Re: JASON SAYS: Oregon-Cal almost too close to call – Ducks by two points

Vondersmith another HOMER job. Go back to covering high school basketball. Ducks will lose this weekend by two touchdowns. I can't wait until Arizona puts the whooping on puke yellow!!!

"Wildcat97"

(email verified)

Thu, Oct 30, 2008 at 10:05 AM

Re: JASON SAYS: Oregon-Cal almost too close to call – Ducks by two points

Cal's offensive line is beat up. They will have a tough time running the ball against oregons defense, even with Jahvid Best. I think Cal's defense will slow down but won't stop Oregon's offense. Masoli brings a new level of athletisicm to the qb position which will be difficult for Cal to deal with. Chris Harper is becoming more and more of a threat. Unless turnovers favor one team over the other by a 2 or more I think it will be a close game. Oregon wins 38-31.

"tmw"

(email verified)

Thu, Oct 30, 2008 at 10:42 AM

Re: JASON SAYS: Oregon-Cal almost too close to call – Ducks by two points

Echo31

I am just calling a spade a spade.

I do not see any evidence from the Ducks performance to suggest they can beat a good team on the road

"jc963"

(email verified)

Thu, Oct 30, 2008 at 02:45 PM

Re: JASON SAYS: Oregon-Cal almost too close to call – Ducks by two points

Tmw,

Cal's 3-4 D is tailor-made to stop an athletic QB with the athletic personnel that Cal has.

Cal's advantage defensively will be to play the run and force the rookie qb to throw to a suspect receiving corps.

UO will have to have success offensively throwing the ball because. They can't just live off of the run against this team. Until UO proves they can do this against a good team, a betting man will take the Bears at home evrytime.